Foreign exchange rates--
A foreign exchange rate is the parity between two
currencies i.e. the amount of one
currency needed to sell (or buy) in order to buy
(or sell) one unit of the other currency.
There are two ways to express such a rate. The most
common (or international way)
quotes the amount of any currency that corresponds
to one U.S. Dollar. So when we
see USD/DEM at 1.5000 this means that one dollar
can be exchanged for 1.5 Dmarks.
Among the major currencies it is only British sterling
which is quoted the other way
i.e. GBP/USD at 1.5500 means that one pound is exchanged
for 1.55 dollars.
The American way of quoting rates uses the opposite
direction, that is it expresses the
dollar amount that can be exchanged for one unit
of foreign currency. So when we see
for example the Dmark at 0.6625 this means that one
mark can be exchanged for
0.6625 dollars (or the same at 66 1/4 cents). The
term "cross rate" is usually used to
express the parity between two nondollar currencies
like DEM/SFR.
Bid and offer--
Exchange rates in practice are quoted as two-way
rates. Thus a dollar/mark quotation
will read something like 1.5000/10. The bank or
company which quotes this rate
understands that it buys marks (selling dollars)
at 1.5010 and sells marks (buying
dollars at 1.5000). In other words it buys cheaper
and sells dearer a given currency in
exchange for the other one. Of course, the opposite
is true for the person that asks for
a quotation. The difference between the purchase
and the sale rates is called «spread».
Such spreads vary in size according to market volatility.
Rate direction and currency direction--
One needs to keep very clear in mind the idea of
market direction. First of all, in the
foreign exchange market it is a mistake to say that
the market is going up or down.
In the stock market one can use this expression as
stocks either go up or go down.
However, in the FX market a rate as we said defines
the parity of two currencies,
hence at any time one goes up , hence the other goes
down. Therefore we can talk about
the dollar going up or down but not about the market
doing so. Another issue that
often confuses people (even traders and bankers)
is the difference between a currency
moving up and its rate going up. We have to explain
this in more detail as any
misunderstanding can lead to painful surprises when
trading in the real market.
For simplicity reasons let us forget for the time
being the bid/offer spread. So let us
suppose that dollar/mark moves from 1.5000 to 1.5010.
In this case the rate goes up
whereas the value of the mark goes down (simply because
the value of the dollar
goes up). In other words one needs more marks at
1.5010 to exchange for one dollar.
Basis points or pips--
A foreign exchange rate usually consists of an integer
part and 4 decimal points
(or 2 decimal points when expressed per 100 units
like e.g. dollar/yen). Thus the decimals
are expressed either at 10th thousands or hundreds.
Each such 0.0001 or 0.01 is called
basis point or pip. E.g. a 50 pips change of 1.5000
is either 1.5050 or 1.4950.
Spot and forward rates--
To some people these concepts are more easily understood
as cash rates and futures.
As a matter of fact we would not like to use the
term «futures» here as this may lead
to confusion with the typical futures contracts.
Instead, let us use a more descriptive
approach. A spot rate is the exchange rate which
is valid for a transaction (purchase
of currency A and sale of currency B) that must be
concluded within the next two
working days. Thus the value date (i.e. the day of
actual delivery of currencies) of
a transaction performed on a Monday is Wednesday.
For Thursday it is Monday
(weekend days are not counted). On the other hand,
a forward transaction regards
a deal which is concluded today and actual effect
will take place on a fixed future date
In the next paragraph we describe the relationship
between a spot and a forward rate.
Interest rates, swap rates and forward
rates--
Many people, even in the financial sector think that
a forward rate is an expectation
or forecast of a future foreign exchange movement.
This is a big mistake. Actually,
a forward rate is nothing else but a mirror of the
currently prevailing spot rate,
allowing for the interest rate differential between
the two currencies and the time
period at the expiration of which the actual transaction
will be concluded. So the
spot rate is adjusted by the so called swap rate
to give the forward rate. For the
unsophisticated investor it is enough to say that
the swap rate is there to compensate
the low interest currency holder for the time period
involved in a forward transaction.
The best way to explain these strange sounding terms
is an example. We shall keep
the simplistic approach and will not get involved
here with FX rate spreads and
interest rate spreads. Suppose person X buys $ 100,000
against Dmarks from bank B
at spot rate 1.5000 for value 30 days forward. Furthermore
let us assume that the dollar
interest rate for this period is 5% and for the mark
3%. This means that during these
30 days A will earn interest on the marks he keeps
until delivery and B will earn
interest on the dollars for the same reason. The
forward rate must allow for the
compensation of A so that on balance no party is
better or worse off. Investor A will
receive interest in marks= (150,000x3x30)/36,000
= 375. On the other hand bank B
will receive interest in dollars = (100,000x5x30)/36,000
= 416.67. This dollar amount
calculated by prevailing spot rate 1.5000 is equivalent
to 625 marks. It is evident that
bank B has to compensate investor A through the forward
rate, i.e. A will pay a lower
price for the dollars he is buying forward to equalise
the difference of 250 marks.
Through a formula we can reach the swap rate 0.0025
This is subtracted from 1.5000
and the forward rate 1.4975 prevails. Indeed, the
investor will finally deliver 149,750
marks to receive 100,000 dollars.
The need for a forward market--
The actual need for the existence of a foreign market
is not speculation. Although as
we explain in another article Why Get Involved,
today there is no clear-cut line between hedging
and speculating. However, there are
a couple of characteristic categories of people who
use the forward market in order to
cover for time lags. The first group includes exporters
and importers. As receipts and
payments do not usually coincide timewise, these
people buy forward the currency
that they will have to pay and sell forward the currency
that they will receive. In this
way they overcome undesirable market fluctuations
and take care of future cash flows.
The second group consists of people who use the forward
market to preserve the value
and nature of their assets without speculating against
future trends. These operators
use both the spot and forward market through swaps,
which are explained below.
Swaps--
A swap transaction (not to be confused with the swap
rate) is a double-leg deal,
in which one buys spot currency X selling currency
Y and simultaneously sells forward
currency X buying currency Y. Let us give an example
to show the rational of such a
transaction. Assume that an American investor has
a future receipt in Dmarks. In
addition, assume that he thinks that German bonds
are presently a good investment.
So he has dollar assets but does not hold cash in
marks. In plain words he needs marks
right now and cannot wait for the future receipt
marks to come. One solution would be
to sell dollars and buy marks in the spot market.
However, suppose he does not wish
in a foreign exchange adventure for he cannot forecast
the exchange value of the
future receipt. In this case he sells dollars against
marks spot getting his marks and
buying his bonds. Simultaneously he buys dollars
forward against marks matching
the value date of the receipt. Upon expiration of
the forward period, the investor
cashes the receipt, pays back the marks that he owes
and gets his original dollars.
Hence he has been able to overcome the time lag problem.
FX market and Money market--
The last issue to be discussed in this brief walk
is the non-difference between two
markets that are the flip side of each other. We
have already mentioned earlier that
a swap rate is basically based on interest rate differentials.
We have also explained
in the previous paragraph the nature of a swap transaction.
The investor who uses
marks bought in the forward market to buy German
bonds has another option.
He can place his dollars on deposit and borrow from
the bank the marks he needs.
Hence, he will have a dollar deposit and a mark loan.
Indeed, the interest between
what he gets and what he pays is also expressed through
the swap rate. Therefore,
both ways lead to the same result. The only advantage
going though the foreign
exchange market rather than through the money market
is simplicity i.e. usually it
is faster and easier to obtain an FX facility rather
than obtaining a loan, even one
based on a collaterilised deposit.